The facts behind the Superstorm QuickWatch Monitor

The winter of 2007-2008 proved to be exceptionally cold and stormy in the northern hemisphere, contrary to global warming models. By contrast, the summer of 2007 was one of the warmest ever recorded in the high arctic. This warming led to a massive melt of polar sea ice, and concern that the Greenland ice sheet was becoming unstable. The 2007-2008 winter weather was particularly harsh in Afghanistan and in the central United States.

In Afghanistan as in many other areas of the planet, record snowfalls were recorded, and many people were left isolated for extended periods. Some suffered frostbite, others died in this region, despite the fact that it is accustomed to cold winters. Similarly, the heaviest snowfall in at least 50 years caused billions of dollars of damage in China. The central United States endured an off-the-charts record number of tornados for the winter season, with hundreds of deaths and property damage across ten states measured in the billions of dollars.

At the same time, there appears to be a major and unexpected change taking place on the sun. Specifically, despite the appearance of a high-latitude reverse polarity sunspot on December 14, 2007, the sun, as of February, remained devoid of the sunspots that would signal the beginning of the next solar maximum. Normally, the appearance of such a sunspot signals the beginning of a period of higher solar activity, and NASA scientists had predicted in 2005 that the 2008-2011 solar max would be one of the most intense on record.

The last time the sun went into 'hibernation' began in approximately 1250, and lasted, with cyclic changes, into the mid 18th century. There was an apparent overall decline in solar output lasting for four centuries, followed by conditions similar to those that had been present prior to 1250, when there were four clearly defined seasons in the planet's temperate zones, which has been true again since around 1750.

During that four hundred year period, seasonal change declined, and there were many years without real summers. The extremely cold and rainy years of 1315-1317 resulted in what remains the worst famine that has been recorded in Europe.

Prior to 1250, glacial retreat and other warming signs were present, but they were not as extreme as they are now, and the amount of methane in the atmosphere was just beginning to rise, as melting permafrost released this greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. Once solar output began to decline, methane dropped. Carbon dioxide levels had remained relatively stable during the period, only beginning to rise with the advent of the industrial revolution in the 18th century, when a pattern of air pollution similar to that generated by the Roman Empire in the 2nd through the 4th centuries returned. By the 19th Century, the carbon dioxide profile of earth's atmosphere began to appear more like what has been measured at the climax of previous interglacials.

At present, the gas profile of the atmosphere is similar to that which appears at the end of interglacials, and it is possible that, if another period of reduced solar output is in the offing, a new ice age could begin, following a pattern similar to that predicted in the book Superstorm. In the past, increased solar output has led to the retreat of glaciers, exposing millions of square miles of previously frozen soils to thawing, with the result that massive quantities of methane have entered the atmosphere, resulting in even higher temperatures and, in the end, the appearance of another interglacial period of relatively warm weather. During this period, greenhouse gasses have at first declined, then risen again as continued increases in solar output have resulted in high arctic heating.

Then, when solar output suddenly drops again, a period of extremely violent weather has followed, culminating in a winter of very extensive snowfall over the northern hemisphere, followed by a summer where the combination of the increased reflectivity of the snowpack and reduced solar output causes the snow to fail to melt, with the result that the next winter brings more snow, and another ice age commences.

During a period of glaciation, the planet's reflectivity, or albedo, rises so high that increases in solar output are apparently not enough to prevent further cooling and more glacial expansion. However, the trapping of so much water in the glaciers eventually leads to the end of further snowfall and a gradual decline in albedo as the ice-cover ages. In the end, a point comes when increased solar output starts to melt the ice.

At present, the question of what the sun will do over the next few years is of overwhelming importance in understanding how humanity might most usefully minimize the effects of what appears to be a period of sudden climate change that is rapidly gaining momentum.

Already, one effect of the extraordinarily disturbed weather earth has been experiencing in recent years has been a decline in food supplies, especially wheat, and subsequent dramatic rises in price, and the possibility of radically altered growing seasons are upon us, and are an immediate threat to the welfare of the species.

Massive storms are already upon us, and the whole northern temperate zone is at continuous risk of destructive weather. No matter what happens to the sun, it is probable that the central States will experience many seasons of dangerous weather from now on, and destruction due to tornadic windstorms and blizzards is apt to rise dramatically and continuously. If global warming continues, these storms will gradually taper off because the temperature differential between the troposphere and the stratosphere will decline. Over the hurricane seasons of 2006 and 2007, the decline in hurricanes was a result of this effect. However, if solar output does become, very harsh weather and serious crop failures will be the inevitable result, including a resumption of hurricanes.

Unfortunately, the recordation of solar activity is too new and our understanding of the way stars work too limited to enable us to be certain of what is happening. This is why, just a few months ago, an enormous solar maximum was being predicted, and it is not clear why it has not materialized. In addition, the connection between the solar cycle and solar output is not well understood. All we know is that, between 1650 and 1770, when the Little Ice Age was at its most intense, almost no sunspots were recorded.

At present, there is a general human migration northward, as populations from Africa, the Middle East and Latin America press into more prosperous northern economies, and the developed world, which mostly clusters in the northern temperate region of the planet, struggles with issues of immigration. However, if the planet becomes colder, that trend will reverse, and quite suddenly, as the most exposed northern populations begin a southward migration that could become desperate.

Planetary emission of greenhouse gasses is a powerful influence on both weather and, on a larger scale, climate, and it is when greenhouses gas levels are high and solar output drops that ice ages start. There is no way to predict such an outcome at this time, but if the next solar max does not take place, and solar activity remains low, this will become a possibility, along with the less radical outcome of another 'little ice age.' If the sun does return to normal output levels, runaway global warming will resume.

There has probably never been a time in recorded history that so many unknowns have converged when the species was so vulnerable to any substantial climate change at all. No matter how it unfolds, the fact remains that we are in the early years of a period of sudden climate change, and, with the decline in agricultural yields and the increase in severe weather worldwide, already feeling its effects.

Previously, this section of the Unknowncountry.com website has recommended that users accept the Canadian Prime Ministers challenge to reduce their personal output of greenhouse gasses. At present, there are many new ways of doing this, both on a personal level and on a larger scale. It is clear that there are going to be significant changes in resource usage patterns that will lead to emissions reduction in the west. This will not take place in India and China, with the result that the net effect of human efforts to conserve will probably be nil.

Unfortunately, neither China nor India has a sufficiently high level of governmental organization to regulate their new industrial sectors, let alone induce them to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. No matter how co-operative these governments are, until their societies develop a good deal further, their efforts will not be effective.

What concerned individuals can most usefully do is to watch the weather for changes that may affect them, and plan accordingly both in the short and medium terms. Short term planning would involve being prepared for heavy weather in areas where it is most likely to occur. Medium term planning might involve the creation of useful personal gardens, the putting by of food, and possibly a move south after two or three successive failed summers, should that occur. Long term planning is not a meaningful option at this time.

Of course, reducing greenhouse gas emissions should continue to be a priority, in order to do whatever possible to blunt the weather extremes that are beginning to prove so damaging to human welfare.

The Quickwatch on this page will continue to be maintained, because the chances of massive spring and fall storms have actually increased in the northern temperate zone in recent years, and a sudden spike in high arctic temperatures during either season is going to result in very dramatic weather. To some extent, this was true in the U.S. Midwest during the winter of 2007-2008, as warm, moist air would be drawn up from the overheated Gulf of Mexico, where it was struck by unusually cold arctic air, with extreme weather the result.